As the Colorado Democratic Party gets ready to hold it's state convention, the presidential race remains an enigma wrapped in a riddle. The popular analysis tells us that Obama has already won the nomination and that the math dictates the outcome. What those folks, led by the ever more bitter, nasty, old and out of touch Chris Mathews on MSNBC, seem to miss is that the Clinton camp isn't counting on math, they're counting a significant change in the political tides. Any one who thinks that Hillary Clinton will drop out because the popular sentiment is that she should...hasn't read many newspapers or newsmagazines in the past decade. The worst possible case to make is that Clinton should drop out because she has no chance. She can cite multiple moments in her past, and her husband's past, when they were told they had no chance and they have prevailed. It's time for the Obama crowd to grow up and gain a measure of political sophistication. The nomination is likely Obama's. And the only reason it isn't already done is that Obama has failed, time after time, to put Clinton away. So what Obama needs to do now is beat Hillary Clinton in Kentucky, Oregon, Montana, South Dakota and Puerto Rico and convince the press and the party that the race is over. If he fails to do that, he deserves all the second-guessing that will come his way.
I've worked in politics, and specifically "spin," since I created the title "Visibility Director" for myself during my very first political gig at the Dottie Lamm for US Senate campaign in 1998. My actual job: Yardsign Boy. Over the last 10 years I've made a lot of mistakes - enough that when I see other people make amazingly stupid mistakes I like to blog about it in my "What Not To Do" series here on State38.
So far, though, I've only used out of state examples because, well, I haven't seen anything stupid enough here in Colorado to qualify for What Not To Do. (This series started after the Ali Hasan kerfuffle.) Thank you, Bob Schaffer, for giving me the chance to write about something right here at home.
Schaffer, the Republican candidate for Colorado's open US Senate seat, released his first TV ad today. Well, he was supposed to release it today. Turns out the media firm he hired thinks all mountain ranges look the same - or maybe they just didn't think Colorado's mountains look impressive enough, which I think is grounds for a hanging in this state.
Take a look for yourself:
Uhh, can someone say "Alaska?" The TV spot even ends with a "hero shot" of the Schaffer logo against a Mt. McKinley/Denali backdrop.
In 2002, as Communications Director for the Stan Matsunaka for Congress campaign against Marilyn Musgrave up in CO04, we cut a spot with the word "Coloradoan" in it. When we got the preview in I yelled and screamed about how people who live in Colorado are NOT "Coloradoans," we are "Coloradans!" The media firm, however, had already decided our race couldn't be won and refused to rerecord the voiceover. I got at least 10 emails a day about that spot, and I assume that sending an email takes more work than not voting for us. Of course when you lose by 14% it's tough to blame "Coloradoan" for the loss...
Using the wrong mountain rage doesn't usually cost a candidate the election, but this latest misstep follows in a pattern of blown opportunities and stupid mistakes. Most prominent, and something that could actually cost the election, was Schaffer's comment about the Mariana Islands serving as a model immigration program - you know, except for all that child labor and forced abortions. Groups like Progress Now (and the Udall campaign, to a lesser degree, which I think is smart) have jumped all over these unnecessary openings and have really bloodied the Schaffer campaign.
I worried when Dick Whaddams came back to Colorado. He's damn good, but it turns out he hasn't done much better than his protege John Marshall. So far the Schaffer campaign looks like a sequel to Bob Beauprez - and we all know sequels are never as good as the original. Except for Godfather Part II. That one rocked. III, not so much, but II - "I know it was you Fredo. You broke my heart. You broke my heart!"
Schafer shtould give his media consultants a big wet kiss on the lips and have 'em whacked for this amateur and completely avoidable mistake.
I'm furious. While I understand that police officers deal with the worst elements of society and I deeply appreciate the work they do, some of them need to get a clue about how to deal with the rest of us.
I just found out about the "Jefferson 1," as the media has come to call a young woman named Brooke Oberwetter. She got arrested at the Jefferson Memorial in DC for, I shit you not, dancing.
Oberwetter and a group of her friends decided to celebrate Jefferson's birthday by taking advantage of the freedoms he helped deliver. They strapped on their iPods and danced away under the watchful gaze of his statue. For a while, anyway.
Within minutes the DC Park Police decided to break it up. When one of the dancers, a cheeky young lass for sure, dared to ask why - well, time to throw her in jail, of course!
Huh? Excuse me? A blogger for Atlantic Monthly put it best, "The purpose of the justice system is to protect the public, not to keep them in line."
Oberwetter's been charged with "interfering with an agency function," whatever that means, and "demonstrating without a permit." This last charge is especially ludicrous because as another blogger points out, "Memorial guidelines clearly say a permit is only necessary if there are more than 25 people in the group. This event didn't break 25 people."
The justification by Park Police for the arrest has been lame at best. Sgt. Robert Lachance, a police spokesman, said in the Washington Post, "The chamber of the Jefferson Memorial is a restricted area for demonstrations or causing any kind of activity that could distract other visitors . . . (in order) to preserve a spirit of tranquility and reverence." Right, because three minutes of silent dancing constitutes a clear and present danger to the peace and security of our nation's monuments.
A message to the Park Police: People won't always do everything you tell them to, especially when it's stupid and you're acting like an authoritative jerk. That doesn't mean you go nuclear and arrest them. For dancing? For questioning you? Please.
As Walter Sobchak would say, "OVER THE LINE!" Yes, police deal with truly awful stuff. Rapes, murders, child abuse, the list goes on and on. But when confronted by ordinary citizens committing minor infractions, they need to step back and chill out. Many of them do, and this might just be my libertarian streak coming to the forefront, but what happened to Oberwetter happens far too often across this great country every day, and it's not right.
I'm amazed at the dust-up that has occurred over Geraline Ferraro's recent comments regarding our Democratic presidential primary. I've heard similar versions of her statement from political activists and journalists for over a year now. There's a sense amoung many people, particularly within the feminist community, that a white woman or a white man with Obama's level of (in)experience would never be taken seriously as a presidential candidate.
Whether you agree or disagree with this assertion, the idea that the point of view is racist, or not even an acceptable opinion to hold seems beyond the pale for political debate. The fact that Obama supporters have now accused Bill Clinton, Ed Rendell and Geraline Ferraro of racism for their observations about the racial and gender aspects of this historic race is absolutely laughable.
It also shows how far the Obama campaign has to go to if they are to win the nomination and the Presidency in the fall. It simply will not work to keep accusing anyone who makes political observations about the impact of Obama's experience and race to be a racist.
The test for the Obama campaign over the next two months is whether they can respond to these attacks without constantly throwing down the race/racist card. It's become embarassing for their campaign that they cry 'racism!' and 'foul!' every time they are attacked. Once they develop the political maturity to respond without the hysteric cry of racism, and recognize that this kind of pressure comes with politics at this level, they'll be ready for prime-time and a general election match up with John McCain.
It looks like Sal Pace, my good friend and former District Director for Congressman John Salazar, will be spending a lot more time in Denver next year - his opponent in the Democratic primary for HD46 just announced he won't petition onto the ballot for the seat currently held by retiring Rep. Dorothy Butcher.
Pace and a well organized team of supporters managed to keep former Pueblo County Democratic Chairman Chuck Rodosevichjust below the 30% mark at the Pueblo County Assembly last month. That means Rodosevich didn't automatically receive a spot on the primary ballot, but still had the option of gathering 1,000 signatures to petition on.
An article in the Pueblo Chieftain today says that won't happen. Rodesevich talked it over with his family and decided "there are lots of reasons not to press on with a petition campaign and a primary race."
This means that in all likelihood Pace will be the next State Representative from HD46. The Republicans have a candidate, but the district votes overwhelming Democratic and Pace will work hard to make sure that trend continues.
Chuck's a great guy and I hope he stays involved with Pueblo politics, but congratulations to Sal Pace. You can be my wingman anytime.
Anyone who has met Bruce Benson knows him to be a smart, funny and compassionate civic leader. He has been active in many apsects of civic life, particularly around the issue of education, in the Denver area and the state of Colorado. He has been extremely generous with his time and money, and has many friends on both sides of the aisle. Yet, his nomination to serve as the next President of the University of Colorado seems in danger of imploding.
The question is, why?
There are four issues that his detractors have raised in criticizing his nomination. First is the concern that he only has an undergraduate degree. Second is that he has no experience working directly in the field of higher education. Third is that his oil and gas background combined with his skepticism about global warming make him ill suited to lead CU. And the fourth is that he has been an active partisan, both as a former state party chair and as the funder and sponsor of a 527 group that has been particularly negative and irresponsible in their activities.
My sense is that in the end, there is only one real issue at play, and that is his past uber-partisan activity. His supporters correctly observe that university Presidents have long since stopped being thoughtful academic intellectuals. Chancellors run campuses, and Presidents raise money, court wealthy alumni and work to keep their state legislature happy. My guess is that Benson is perfectly qualified to play that role. But the one hindrance is his partisanship, and in particular his involvement with the Trailhead Group, and whether that past activity fundamentally rules his candidacy out.
If his partisanship has been limited to being a former state party chair, most would give him a pass. But 527s have become the bane of thoughtful political discourse, on both sides of the aisle. People use 527's to make statements and assertions they aren't willing to put their names to. 527's have lowered the tone and tenor of political debate in America, and are the basis for much of the cynicism that fuels skeptical voters.
It is a fair question to ask whether Benson's sponsorship and support of a particularly nasty 527 fundamentally disqualifies him from this position. All the other issues that have been raised pale in comparison to this core question.
As long-time State38 readers may know, I've written a few posts about what not to do as a staffer or candidate, mostly based on mistakes I've made and then seen repeated by other, more high profile people. But man, I ain't never made a mistake like this one.
Chuck Rodosevich and Sal Pace are both running to fill the vacancy left by retiring Rep. Dorothy Butcher in HD46. According to the Pueblo Chieftain, Rodosevich filed his campaign finance report to the Colorado Secretary of State's office about a week past the deadline. Certainly not a good idea when you're asking to help make the laws you can't seem to follow - but that's not the worst part.
Understandably, Rodosevich would prefer not to pay the $400 fine for his tardiness, but the excuse he gave the Chieftain should go down in every staffer's handbook as what not to say: "'I pleaded some ignorance of the process in my appeal and they are considering it,' Rodosevich said with a wry laugh" (emphasis added).
Ugh. Especially not a good thing to say just a few days before the Feb. 5 caucuses. Especially when every other State Rep. in Colorado follows the same process. Especially when your opponent got his report in on time. Especially when it just makes you sound like the village idiot.
Moving on, the Chieftain minimizes the ideological differences between the two candidates, instead saying that "the contest may come down to which candidate works the hardest at getting support." As of the Jan. 15 filing, Pace had about $26,000 in contributions, and Rodosevich had about $5,600, including $900 of his own money.
Pace managed Salazar's 2006 re-election and his experience in fundraising shows in his Jan. 15 financial report. He's received contributions from local Democrats such as Sheriff Kirk Taylor and Wally Stealey as well as higher-profile Democrats around the state, such as Rutt Bridges, Mike Stratton and former state Attorney General J.D. McFarlane.
His largest contribution was $4,000 from the United Food & Commercial Workers Local No. 7.
Rodosevich has a shorter list of contributors, with the largest donation being $500 from the United Transportation Union.
My money's on Sal. Literally. The usual full disclaimer - Sal's a good friend of mine, I donated to his campaign, and I worked with him on John Salazar's 2002 race. But I don't have to be his friend to know that sending in finance reports a week late and then claiming "ignorance of the process" really doesn't help in a race for the Colorado House.
Seems the numbers point to a Clinton bounce as a result of the Edwards withdraw. 1/7 Hotline poll has HRC 2nd choice of 45% of Edwards' supporters with BHO at 25%. Clear that Obama is focusing on caucus states and Clinton primary states. Explains the 6th Obama mailer showing up today in Colorado, this one positive.
I just received a second attack mailer from the Obama campaign hitting Hillary Clinton. Typical hatchet job. Inaccurate, hypocritical and mean-spirited. What is all this about Obama and "new politics"? Obama is the front man for the 21st Century version of the Chicago political machine and these mailers show it. Why is Obama getting a pass on these tactics that are decidedly "old politics"?
Seriously, this can't be real. I giggled like a little school girl when I read the sub-head on today's Rocky Mountain News story: "GOP condemns Bruce for kicking Rocky photog" Did ProgressNowAction really set the language used by the Rocky to describe this debacle? It looks like the answer is yes, yes they did.
As I read the rest of the story, I almost broke my computer I laughed so hard when I saw the following from El Paso County Republican Chair Greg Garcia: "Like all of us, he has some human failings, and today, with the antagonistic way the press was pressuring him, he may have reacted the wrong way." MAY have reacted the wrong way? And wait, wait - now Doug's got other people blaming the press, too? That damn liberal media!
Finally, the play-by-play at the end of the article - I fell off my couch when I read this: "Douglas Bruce pulls his black Cadillac with 'MRTABOR' license plates into its new parking space at the Colorado Capitol." Then, "'I'm just a warm fuzzy-wuzzy,' he tells Rep. Alice Madden, D-Boulder, in the parking lot." Clearly, the man has no shame brain.
And just for those of you who obsess over technical details, Bruce kicked "Rocky photographer Javier Manzano's left knee with his right foot" at exactly 10:05 a.m. Thanks for clearing that up, fellas.
Mark Twain said, "Never pick a fight with someone who buys ink by the barrel." Until today, I never fathomed he meant it literally.
Like fish in a barrel. Press release from Michael Huttner with ProgressNowAction:
Call for Republicans to condemn colleagues' assault:
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
Michael Huttner
Denver-- ProgressNowAction is calling on Republican Leadership, specifically Colorado House Minority leader Mike May and Colorado GOP Republican Chairman Dick Wadhams to condemn Representative Doug Bruce's assault on a Rocky Mountain News reporter at the Colorado State Capitol earlier today.
"These is Republicans gone wild and they are out of control," stated Michael Huttner, Executive Director of ProgressNowAction, Colorado's largest online progressive advocacy organization. "Minority Leader May and Chairman Wadhams need to publicly condemn their fellow Republican's actions immediately."
This morning Republican Representative Doug Bruce have a Rocky Mountain News photographer a "swift kick in the knee" when the photographer tried to take his picture. (RMN, 1/14/2008)
Asked by reporters in his office about the incident, Bruce said his kick was warranted. (RMN)
By now I'm sure everyone reading this knows about the prayerfully delivered kick Rep. Doug Bruce not-so-kindly gave to a Rocky Mountain News photographer this morning for, you know, doing his job. What you may not know is that Bruce could wind up on the receiving end of a nasty lawsuit because of it. Before I get to that, though, I have to share these truly awesome quotes.
According to the Rocky, tough-talking Dealing Delusional Doug demanded an apology from the photographer: "I think the Rocky Mountain News photographer ought to apologize to the House and to me and to all the people whom he disrupted. He needs to get a lesson in manners and decorum." This led to one of my favorite lines ever from Rocky Editor, President and Publisher John Temple: "For a person to believe that he can provide a lesson in decorum by kicking another human being is unfathomable." Uhh, you think?
The real question now is whether House Republicans will stand silently by and condone Bruce's prepubescent kick, or whether they'll continue to distance themselves from his zany antics. Earlier this morning they voted 22-1 to push for a replacement of Bruce should he continue his tantrum about having a swearing-in ceremony ONLY DURING THE SESSION! NO NO NO NO NOT IN ROMANOFF'S OFFICE LIKE EVERYONE ELSE! I WANT IT IN THE CHAMBER DURING SESSION!! THAT'S WHEN I WANT IT!! ONLY THEN!!! I DON'T CARE IF IT'S NEVER BEEN DONE BEFORE, I WANT IT!
Whoa, sorry about that. I think I channeled Dougie-boy there for a second.
Back to the issue I mentioned at the top of this post - it's unclear whether or not Temple will sue the pants off of Bruce for assaulting one of his photographers. I heard he's already yelled at everyone from House Minority Leader Mike May to good 'ole Dick Wadhams, but will he take the next step and go to court over it? Ironically, legislators on the house floor normally have immunity from those sorts of lawsuits, but because of the aforementioned swearing-in tantrum Bruce technically wasn't a legislator at the time he delivered the kick heard round the statehouse.
Here's a question for State38 readers - should John Temple, the Rocky's editor, sue Rep. Bruce? Poll after the jump.
On a side note, they've grown a cloned rat heart - and by they I mean a group of mad scientists from University of Minnesota. However, as a friend of mine put it, not even this can save Giuliani's campaign. Now go to the poll!
Late last year, I wrote a brief commentary on why the GOP bench of upcoming candidates stinks. They need to find energetic, attractive candidates who can appeal to moderates in swing districts, not CD4 or Mesa County radicals that will only win in their own gerrymandered hometowns.
Democratic candidates have won the suburbs and exurbs because they talked pocketbook issues, not Milton Friedman/James Dobson dogma.
The Denver Post has a great story today that illustrates the gap.
Four years later, higher-education funding is again among the most-talked-about problems in state government. A recent study showed Colorado fell to 48th in the country in state funding to its institutions.
Joe Neguse and Scott Martinez, a 29-year-old lawyer, are vying for spots on the CU Board of Regents mostly because, they say, an earlier generation failed to fix the problem.
Observers, including (Andrew} Romanoff, say Neguse shows promise because of his first-generation-American background and his polish. Before passing the bar exam, he is already glad-handing people all over the Capitol and the 2nd Congressional District asking for votes, 10 months before the election.
One of his goals is to visit every high school in his district - which spans the mountains, Commerce City and Westminster - to talk about CU.
I would say Neguse has his race locked up, while Martinez will need to raise some serious money and spend it very wisely.
However, both should be political forces in Colorado for years to come.
I love America. Where else in the world would private telecom companies treat their nation's domestic intelligence service the same as any other delinquent customer? From the AP via Yahoo News:
WASHINGTON - Telephone companies have cut off FBI wiretaps used to eavesdrop on suspected criminals because of the bureau's repeated failures to pay phone bills on time.
A Justice Department audit released Thursday blamed the lost connections on the FBI's lax oversight of money used in undercover investigations. In one office alone, unpaid costs for wiretaps from one phone company totaled $66,000.
...
More than half of 990 bills to pay for telecommunication surveillance in five unidentified FBI field offices were not paid on time, the report shows.
Jefferson and his fellow Antifederalists believed the greatest threat to liberty came from the government - it would seem that the greatest threat to the government comes from its own ineptitude. Also in the AP story, the ACLU got in a good jab about these companies having no problem violating our civil rights - as long as they get paid.
"It seems the telecoms, who are claiming they were just being 'good patriots' when they allowed the government to spy on us without warrants, are more than willing to pull the plug on national security investigations when the government falls behind on its bills," said former FBI agent Michael German, the ACLU's national security policy counsel. "To put it bluntly, it sounds as though the telecoms believe it when FBI says warrant is in the mail but not when they say the check is in the mail."
I find it shameful that the rights of corporations have become so strong they can cut-off the federal government without thinking twice, while the rights of individuals have become so weak the federal government can cut-off our rights without thinking twice. That corporations just go along with it scares the hell out of me.
Tonight's New Hampshire primary results were amazing, even for those of us who are veterans of many a presidential cycle. I so enjoy the fact that what is supposed to happen rarely does, and that the voters have a consistent ability to surprise the pollsters and pundits. You could feel the desperation in the Obama crowd through the television screen, just as you could feel the relief of the Clinton camp as you watched her staff handle the evening's spin. Anyone who has been involved in politics for any length of time knows exactly what it feels like to be on both sides of this divide, deep disappointment when things don't turn out as you'd hope and incredible glee when things surprisingly go your way.
So, for me, a few observations:
-Chris Mathews on MSNBC was openly bitterly angry as the results came in, he completely revealed his bias as a Clinton hater and an Obama supporter. Tom Brokaw had to talk him off the cliff and remind him that it's not the job of journalists to be soothsayers. Mathews, who had been gloating all day about the guaranteed Obama victory, spun out, crankily criticizing the pollsters who had predicted a double digit Obama victory. To see the entire NBC/MSNC crowd on the air together revealed that Brokaw, Williams and Russert were clearly the class of field, and that Keith Olbermann was by far the more thoughtful observer/journalist than his MSNBC colleague Mathews.
-Mitt Romney reminds me of no one more than John
Kerry, and not just because they're both from Massachusetts and both are too telegenic. In the end, both of them are too calculated, too nuanced and too unable to communicate with any authenticity. Remember poor John Kerry trying to explain his position on the war during the 2004 campaign? He was so careful and nuanced that the voters lost interest and attention two paragraphs into every answer to the question. Poor Romney has watched his political fortunes fall as he spends too much time and energy explaining why he feels the way he feels today and why that is different than how he felt about things in various other times in the past. He can't say (because his past positions don't resemble his current ones) in any kind of straightforward way what he feels about issues like abortion, gun control, gay marriage, etc. It's become painful to watch. He thinks, in classic Harvard MBA fashion, that a good, solid, well financed organization, backed by cookie-cutter 'conservative' position papers will get him elected President, and he couldn't be more wrong. The voters have proven that this approach to politics doesn't work. They want authenticity and that's what Republican voters are getting from John McCain and Mike Huckabee.
-And finally, the Clinton victory was truly a shocker. The last set of polls showed Obama with a 13% lead. The press today was dominated by stories about Hillary shaking up her campaign, hiring and firing, changing strategies and pollsters and media people. Her own staff were telling people off the record that the campaign was thinking about skipping both South Carolina and Nevada, that they hoped to keep tonight's loss to single digits. It is a wonderful thing that sometimes the voters themselves decide to shock the system. And it was most amazing that Clinton received such a huge share of the female vote, a double digit margin, partially because it seemed like the 'boys' had decided to gang up on her during the Saturday debate. I've never been a big Hillary fan, but this was an amazing result.
Those were some of my observations of the evening, what were yours? And what do people think this means for both races? Is Hillary back in the driver's seat? Is Edwards still legitimately in the game? Can McCain keep moving forward? Is Romney dead? Did Giuliani blow it in waiting until Florida to engage?
